10:00 PM – North Dakota (3), California (55), Idaho (4), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Hawaii (4)
Total Electoral Vote to this point: 535 (3 remaining!)
Easy ones:
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii
McCain: North Dakota, Idaho
If we just look at the "easy ones", that's 78 electoral votes. Add that to the 208 votes that MSNBC has right now and you get 286 electoral votes! I would almost expect it right away after 10 PM. That's WITHOUT Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina.
Again, FLORIDA will go to Obama. So, add 27 votes to the total. That's 313 Electoral votes.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Beating a dead horse...
I wrote these posts last night just so you had a guide to see what to expect every hour. However, as my previous post states... I just don't see a path for McCain... like... literally. BUT... what I wrote last night still rings true for what to pay attention to when the next set of polls close.
Having said that:
I would start thinking about Florida as being in the Obama column. Indiana as well. I'm optimistic about Missouri as well.
AND, the map earlier didn't allow me to give Obama an extra electoral vote from the Omaha district in Nebraska. So, add that to my prediction. I'm regretting my North Carolina choice.
HERE'S what to look for at 9 PM!
9:00 – Iowa (7), Montana (3), Utah (5), Nevada (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 451
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
SAFE Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
Having said that:
I would start thinking about Florida as being in the Obama column. Indiana as well. I'm optimistic about Missouri as well.
AND, the map earlier didn't allow me to give Obama an extra electoral vote from the Omaha district in Nebraska. So, add that to my prediction. I'm regretting my North Carolina choice.
HERE'S what to look for at 9 PM!
9:00 – Iowa (7), Montana (3), Utah (5), Nevada (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 451
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
SAFE Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
That's Ballgame!
The networks won't say it, but Obama has 195 electoral votes from MSNBC. If you add California (55), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Hawaii (3)
That's 274!
President OBAMA!
That's 274!
President OBAMA!
8 PM a BUNCH MORE States!
8:00 PM – New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Kansas (6), Louisiana (9), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Wyoming (3)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado (in my opinion, but they won't call it for awhile)
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. They definitely won't call Missouri or Indiana anytime soon apparently. However, if you miss a call of Florida (looking great!) or Indiana (not as great)… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado (in my opinion, but they won't call it for awhile)
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. They definitely won't call Missouri or Indiana anytime soon apparently. However, if you miss a call of Florida (looking great!) or Indiana (not as great)… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
7:30 PM – North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6)
7:30 PM – North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 275!
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 275!
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
7 PM - NOW we get some electoral votes...
7:00 PM – Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan* (), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee* (), Alabama (9), Florida (25), Illinois (21), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota* (), Texas* ()
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana
6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
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