10:00 PM – North Dakota (3), California (55), Idaho (4), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Hawaii (4)
Total Electoral Vote to this point: 535 (3 remaining!)
Easy ones:
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii
McCain: North Dakota, Idaho
If we just look at the "easy ones", that's 78 electoral votes. Add that to the 208 votes that MSNBC has right now and you get 286 electoral votes! I would almost expect it right away after 10 PM. That's WITHOUT Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina.
Again, FLORIDA will go to Obama. So, add 27 votes to the total. That's 313 Electoral votes.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Beating a dead horse...
I wrote these posts last night just so you had a guide to see what to expect every hour. However, as my previous post states... I just don't see a path for McCain... like... literally. BUT... what I wrote last night still rings true for what to pay attention to when the next set of polls close.
Having said that:
I would start thinking about Florida as being in the Obama column. Indiana as well. I'm optimistic about Missouri as well.
AND, the map earlier didn't allow me to give Obama an extra electoral vote from the Omaha district in Nebraska. So, add that to my prediction. I'm regretting my North Carolina choice.
HERE'S what to look for at 9 PM!
9:00 – Iowa (7), Montana (3), Utah (5), Nevada (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 451
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
SAFE Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
Having said that:
I would start thinking about Florida as being in the Obama column. Indiana as well. I'm optimistic about Missouri as well.
AND, the map earlier didn't allow me to give Obama an extra electoral vote from the Omaha district in Nebraska. So, add that to my prediction. I'm regretting my North Carolina choice.
HERE'S what to look for at 9 PM!
9:00 – Iowa (7), Montana (3), Utah (5), Nevada (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 451
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
SAFE Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
That's Ballgame!
The networks won't say it, but Obama has 195 electoral votes from MSNBC. If you add California (55), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Hawaii (3)
That's 274!
President OBAMA!
That's 274!
President OBAMA!
8 PM a BUNCH MORE States!
8:00 PM – New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Kansas (6), Louisiana (9), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Wyoming (3)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado (in my opinion, but they won't call it for awhile)
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. They definitely won't call Missouri or Indiana anytime soon apparently. However, if you miss a call of Florida (looking great!) or Indiana (not as great)… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado (in my opinion, but they won't call it for awhile)
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. They definitely won't call Missouri or Indiana anytime soon apparently. However, if you miss a call of Florida (looking great!) or Indiana (not as great)… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
7:30 PM – North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6)
7:30 PM – North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 275!
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 275!
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
7 PM - NOW we get some electoral votes...
7:00 PM – Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan* (), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee* (), Alabama (9), Florida (25), Illinois (21), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota* (), Texas* ()
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana
6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
My predictions...
Obama: 360
McCain: 178
Ok, this is very last minute and none of it will matter in anywhere between 4 and 5 hours (another prediction). But is what my map looks like for tonight:
Here are the important calls for Obama:
Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and MISSOURI!
Basically, I'm under the impression that the voter models are UNDER-estimating youth and black turnout as well as the Obama's impressive GOTV operation (that's "Get Out The Vote"). If I had to second guess anything, I would give Indiana and North Carolina to McCain BEFORE I gave Missouri to him.
So... this is a VERY optimistic map, but if we believe the cellphone effect (which gives Obama around 6 points nationally when you factor in polls that call both wireless and landlines) and outdated voter models, then this is what our map looks like.
HOWEVER... look at VIRGINIA. If Obama wins Virginia, then all he needs to win is Florida or Pennsylvania and he's done for the evening.
Other strange predictions:
McCain: 178
Ok, this is very last minute and none of it will matter in anywhere between 4 and 5 hours (another prediction). But is what my map looks like for tonight:
Here are the important calls for Obama:
Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and MISSOURI!
Basically, I'm under the impression that the voter models are UNDER-estimating youth and black turnout as well as the Obama's impressive GOTV operation (that's "Get Out The Vote"). If I had to second guess anything, I would give Indiana and North Carolina to McCain BEFORE I gave Missouri to him.
So... this is a VERY optimistic map, but if we believe the cellphone effect (which gives Obama around 6 points nationally when you factor in polls that call both wireless and landlines) and outdated voter models, then this is what our map looks like.
HOWEVER... look at VIRGINIA. If Obama wins Virginia, then all he needs to win is Florida or Pennsylvania and he's done for the evening.
Other strange predictions:
- Missouri will not be as close as Indiana.
- Al Franken will win in MN.
- Elizabeth Dole will lose.
- Dems will get 58 Senate seats (and Lieberman will stay with the Dems)
- The results of this election SHOULD be known between 8:15 and 9, but networks might hold off until after California starts reporting votes... you know, just in case McCain wins CA.
- I will probably want to cry.
- Leslie will make fun of me for it.
Here is Google's lovely map which you can use to keep up-to-date on the Presidential Race as well as Senate and House races. It doesn't quite fit in the silly Blogger format, however. HuffPo has it on their site. Here it be.
Gambling and the Presidential Election
8:40 AM: Andrew sends along a link that talks about gambling and the Presidential Election. It's an interesting read and provides some different information than what I've read over the past year. These gambling odds are different than the prediction markets that people often talk about.
Currently, Intrade has Obama around 91% and McCain at 9%. This is, in no way, a scientific analysis. The markets simply reflect the conventional wisdom of any given moment. Actually, for a long time, there was one guy holding onto a bunch of McCain "shares" to artificially inflate his chances. In 2004, a European-based site gave Bush a 58% chance of winning of Kerry. So, there is a bit more "certainty" over the election tonight... but still GO VOTE!
More info on predictions markets:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10082013-38.html
Currently, Intrade has Obama around 91% and McCain at 9%. This is, in no way, a scientific analysis. The markets simply reflect the conventional wisdom of any given moment. Actually, for a long time, there was one guy holding onto a bunch of McCain "shares" to artificially inflate his chances. In 2004, a European-based site gave Bush a 58% chance of winning of Kerry. So, there is a bit more "certainty" over the election tonight... but still GO VOTE!
More info on predictions markets:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10082013-38.html
Haven't voted yet? Take some pictures and let me see!
This was the line that I stood in at my polling location. I arrived at 5:45 (15 minutes before the polls open) and was 12th in line. There were 25 people in total and everybody seemed very excited that there were that many people there.
This is a picture that Lucas took from his polling place, Logos School in St. Louis, MO. He arrived at 6 am and took this picture 20 minutes later. He claims he was "wrapped around the parking lot". It should be noted that St. Louis County is a crucial county for Obama to carry since it's the largest county in Missouri and the best way for him to counteract any losses (and there will be losses) in more rural parts of the state. So, this is encouraging for the Obama campaign. HOWEVER, people who vote early are probably more likely to have voted anyway, so this necessarily evidence of higher turnout.Let's see those pictures!
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Here is Andrew's experience at around 9:15 this morning in St. Louis. It's a bit lighter than I would've liked considering that turnout in St. Louis County is pivotal to Missouri going to Obama.
First Votes (Repost)
First polls open at Midnight E.T. in New Hampshire!
The towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location open at Midnight and close shortly thereafter, since all 115 eligible voters will vote in the election. They are also the first to report their votes in the entire country.
The next updates will include the fancy widgets and hopefully my electoral predictions. Man, I can't believe I wrote that much... sorry.
The towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location open at Midnight and close shortly thereafter, since all 115 eligible voters will vote in the election. They are also the first to report their votes in the entire country.
- Since 1960, Dixville Notch has voted with the eventual winner 6 out of 12 times (50%). However, they have voted for the Republican nominee 11 out of 12 times. Strangely, the only time they voted Democratic was in 1968 when the citizens of Dixville Notch supported Hubert Humphrey by a vote of 8-4.
- Since 1996, Hart's Location has gone with the Republican nominee each time, meaning that it has voted with the winner two out of three times (66%). It should be noted that the town of Hart's Location hasn't had over 31 votes in the presidential election since 1996. It is, indeed, a very small town.
The next updates will include the fancy widgets and hopefully my electoral predictions. Man, I can't believe I wrote that much... sorry.
5 PM - Kentucky (8), Indiana (11)
ALL TIMES ARE CENTRAL!
Total available Electoral Votes to this point: 19
Both of these states have polling locations that close at separate times throughout the next hour - some of them at 5 PM Central and others at 6 PM . It's conceivable (and apparently traditional during the last 4 cycles) for the networks to call Indiana, and its 11 electoral votes, for the Republican nominee right away. This will not happen tonight since the city of Gary, IN is in the Chicago market and closes at 6 PM. Make no mistake... Indiana is a RED state. However, the Obama ground game in Indiana is VASTLY superior and that might be enough (with the infusion of Illinois volunteers). Either way, don't expect Indiana to get called anytime soon. Kentucky... who cares. That's 8 votes for McCain.
Totals:
Obama: 0
McCain: 8
(Kentucky)
Total available Electoral Votes to this point: 19
Both of these states have polling locations that close at separate times throughout the next hour - some of them at 5 PM Central and others at 6 PM . It's conceivable (and apparently traditional during the last 4 cycles) for the networks to call Indiana, and its 11 electoral votes, for the Republican nominee right away. This will not happen tonight since the city of Gary, IN is in the Chicago market and closes at 6 PM. Make no mistake... Indiana is a RED state. However, the Obama ground game in Indiana is VASTLY superior and that might be enough (with the infusion of Illinois volunteers). Either way, don't expect Indiana to get called anytime soon. Kentucky... who cares. That's 8 votes for McCain.
Totals:
Obama: 0
McCain: 8
(Kentucky)
6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.
Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.
While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)
6:30 PM – Ohio (20), West Virginia (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 83
West Virginia = McCain.
Ohio, of course, isn’t as simple. It won’t be called right away and may not be called for several hours. It’s possible that McCain wins Ohio, but that alone wouldn’t be enough (although, historically, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio). This year, Ohio has a Democratic Secretary of State (who certifies the vote) and that could play a huge role in any future voting issues throughout this process. All in all, by this point in the evening, West Virginia will be called, but nothing else (including any states not previously called).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 26
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia)
West Virginia = McCain.
Ohio, of course, isn’t as simple. It won’t be called right away and may not be called for several hours. It’s possible that McCain wins Ohio, but that alone wouldn’t be enough (although, historically, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio). This year, Ohio has a Democratic Secretary of State (who certifies the vote) and that could play a huge role in any future voting issues throughout this process. All in all, by this point in the evening, West Virginia will be called, but nothing else (including any states not previously called).
Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 26
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia)
7:00 PM - The FIRST large chunk of states
7:00 PM – Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan* (), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee* (), Alabama (9), Florida (25), Illinois (21), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota* (), Texas* ()
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
Monday, November 3, 2008
7:30 PM – North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 275!
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
(This is the moment that SOMEBODY could be declared the winner of the election! Although, we all know it won’t happen until later. Remember, you need 270 to win.)
Arkansas goes quickly to McCain. North Carolina is key. IF North Carolina gets called for Obama quickly, then the networks will probably want to call the election sooner rather than later since that will mean that the Obama ground game is working hard and winning traditional red states.
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 54
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas)
It should be noted that if all of the “safe” states for Obama are added up, then he gets himself right around 250 votes. I’m just letting you know which states aren’t really news so you know what’s up. Keep in mind, the longer that the networks wait to call any particular state, the better it means for McCain (in general).
8:00 PM! LOTS O' STATES!
8:00 PM – New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Kansas (6), Louisiana (9), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Wyoming (3)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. However, if you miss a call of Florida or Indiana… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
No questions asked:
Obama: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado
McCain: Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota
Did you notice what state got left out? Arizona. Yes, McCain will probably win his home state, but don’t think that’s always a given. Think back to 2000 and Al Gore losing Tennessee, which ultimately was a deciding factor in the election. If Arizona takes time to call, then McCain has no chance in this election.
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes (Maine being the other one). There was a point in time where that mattered, but that was in a different era where people were concerned about a 269-269 electoral tie. Having said that, Obama should win the Omaha district (the first time that Nebraska actually has split its votes, btw).
You’ve also got 60 minutes before any more poll closings (which EVERY channel will tell you). So, this is your best chance to take a break. However, if you miss a call of Florida or Indiana… don’t blame me. It’s probably best just not to leave.
Totals:
Obama: 169
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5)
McCain: 110
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5)
9:00 – Iowa (7), Montana (3), Utah (5), Nevada (5)
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 451
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
For Sure? Obama wins Iowa.
Also likely, Obama gets Nevada and McCain gets Montana and Utah.
No real surprises here.
Totals:
Obama: 181
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada)
McCain: 118
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana)
10:00 PM – North Dakota (3), California (55), Idaho (4), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Hawaii (4)
Total Electoral Vote to this point: 535 (3 remaining!)
Easy ones:
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii
McCain: North Dakota, Idaho
Totals:
Obama: 258
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii)
McCain: 125
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana, North Dakota, Idaho)
So, notice that Obama is ALREADY up to 258. By this point in the evening, I’m pretty sure that the race has been called for Obama because one of the previous battleground states will probably be called by this point (Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Florida). These states equal 103 electoral votes (I think… what’s important is that the number is high). Obama leads in at least 3 of those (Penn, MO, OH)… and probably more. If Obama wins Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania… that gets him over the 270 he needs.
Easy ones:
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii
McCain: North Dakota, Idaho
Totals:
Obama: 258
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska (1 of 5), Iowa, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii)
McCain: 125
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska (4 of 5), Utah, Montana, North Dakota, Idaho)
So, notice that Obama is ALREADY up to 258. By this point in the evening, I’m pretty sure that the race has been called for Obama because one of the previous battleground states will probably be called by this point (Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Florida). These states equal 103 electoral votes (I think… what’s important is that the number is high). Obama leads in at least 3 of those (Penn, MO, OH)… and probably more. If Obama wins Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania… that gets him over the 270 he needs.
11:00 PM - Alaska (3)
Once Obama had plans of winning this state, but McCain’s political choice of Gov. Sarah Palin hand delivered him Alaksa and its 3 electoral votes. Again, by this point, it probably won’t matter.
First Poll Times! 11 PM Central!
First polls open at Midnight E.T. in New Hampshire!
The towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location open at Midnight and close shortly thereafter, since all 115 eligible voters will vote in the election. They are also the first to report their votes in the entire country.
I'll update more in the early morning along with some fun links, widgets and plug-ins to help with your election viewing. So check back here before you start watching. Remember, the first polls close at 5 PM Central Time (Indiana and Kentucky!)
The towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location open at Midnight and close shortly thereafter, since all 115 eligible voters will vote in the election. They are also the first to report their votes in the entire country.
- Since 1960, Dixville Notch has voted with the eventual winner 6 out of 12 times (50%). However, they have voted for the Republican nominee 11 out of 12 times. Strangely, the only time they voted Democratic was in 1968 when the citizens of Dixville Notch supported Hubert Humphrey by a vote of 8-4.
- Since 1996, Hart's Location has gone with the Republican nominee each time, meaning that it has voted with the winner two out of three times (66%). It should be noted that the town of Hart's Location hasn't had over 31 votes in the presidential election since 1996. It is, indeed, a very small town.
I'll update more in the early morning along with some fun links, widgets and plug-ins to help with your election viewing. So check back here before you start watching. Remember, the first polls close at 5 PM Central Time (Indiana and Kentucky!)
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