7:00 PM – Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan* (), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee* (), Alabama (9), Florida (25), Illinois (21), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota* (), Texas* ()
Total Electoral Votes to this point: 254.
Real quick hits:
Obama wins 79 electoral votes from the New England states (it’s possible he loses one of the lose electoral votes in Maine, but we’ll ignore that).
McCain wins 22. No surprises here.
Really, Obama is MUCH more likely to win Pennsylvania than Virginia… and he looks pretty good for Virginia as well. However, Pennsylvania won’t be called in this hour (even though he’s running 10 points ahead of McCain in the state).
Toss-ups in this hour:
Pennsylvania, MISSOURI!
I have a real hard time thinking that Missouri is going to go for Obama in this election, but maybe that’s because I don’t want to get my hopes up. As I’m sure Chuck Todd or John King and his “Magic Wall” will tell you, Obama has been working to keep down McCain’s margin of victory. So, look for the margin of victory in the center of Missouri AND remember that Missouri was called incorrectly in 2006 (when McCaskill won) and the 2008 Primary (CNN and others called it for Hillary). It’s conceivable that this election will be effectively over before Missouri’s 11 electoral votes will be allotted to anybody. Also, us Missouri folks should be reminded that Missouri IS the ultimate bellwether state- having voted with the eventual victor in every election since 1904 except for one (1956, when Missouri supported then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson).
Totals:
Obama: 82
(Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Illinois)
McCain: 48
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma)
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