McCain: 178
Ok, this is very last minute and none of it will matter in anywhere between 4 and 5 hours (another prediction). But is what my map looks like for tonight:
Here are the important calls for Obama:
Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and MISSOURI!
Basically, I'm under the impression that the voter models are UNDER-estimating youth and black turnout as well as the Obama's impressive GOTV operation (that's "Get Out The Vote"). If I had to second guess anything, I would give Indiana and North Carolina to McCain BEFORE I gave Missouri to him.
So... this is a VERY optimistic map, but if we believe the cellphone effect (which gives Obama around 6 points nationally when you factor in polls that call both wireless and landlines) and outdated voter models, then this is what our map looks like.
HOWEVER... look at VIRGINIA. If Obama wins Virginia, then all he needs to win is Florida or Pennsylvania and he's done for the evening.
Other strange predictions:
- Missouri will not be as close as Indiana.
- Al Franken will win in MN.
- Elizabeth Dole will lose.
- Dems will get 58 Senate seats (and Lieberman will stay with the Dems)
- The results of this election SHOULD be known between 8:15 and 9, but networks might hold off until after California starts reporting votes... you know, just in case McCain wins CA.
- I will probably want to cry.
- Leslie will make fun of me for it.
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