6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana

6 PM - Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Florida* (27), Kentucky, Indiana

Total Electoral Votes to this point: 58

Why is Virginia bolded? AGAIN? Because almost every electoral scenario for McCain requires that he win Virginia. Is that going to happen? Probably not. Obama is up an average of 5% on McCain (that's a weighted average), however the mythical Bradley Effect could always rear its ugly head. IF Virginia is within 2 points or so, then we might be able to expect similar behavior from the Indiana electorate. So, by this point in the evening we’re looking closely at Virginia and Indiana.

Also, you’ll notice that Florida closes at this time. However, as I’m sure we all remember, there is a small portion of Florida (in the panhandle) that is in the Central time zone. The networks WILL be very careful and WILL wait out Florida until after all of the polls close. So, don’t expect much on that front.

While Obama winning Georgia is plausible, I wouldn’t expect it. However, if Georgia isn’t called for McCain right away, it could give credence to the voter models that the pollsters have been using which would bode well for Obama in other parts of the country (increased Black turnout).

Totals:
Obama: 3
(Vermont)
McCain: 21
(Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia,)